Judgement Weekend Update: The Final Picture

So, Sheffield beat Nottingham in overtime thanks to the vital-goal scoring machine and surely Steelers (and likely EIHL) Player of the Year Mathieu Roy. Here’s how the table looks now:

SHEFFIELD BEAT NOTTINGHAM (OT) GAMES PLAYED POINTS REG WINS WINS
Sheffield 51 72 29 34
Cardiff 50 70 28 33
Braehead 50 69 31 33

So…how does that affect the title race?

First, bear in mind that any scenario that sees Braehead level on points with another team means the Clan finish higher. But, the Clan need to take at least three points from the weekend to get in amongst the title race, so we’re looking at them either winning or losing in OT. Anything else on either night will see them out of the title race.

SCENARIO 1: Sheffield Win (in regulation or OT)

Any Sheffield win will give them the title tomorrow night. It’s that simple.

So…we know that Cardiff have to win tomorrow to prevent the Steelers winning it, and Braehead also have to take at least a point on Saturday to even have a chance. Let’s take a look at the possible scenarios .

SCENARIO 2a: Cardiff win in Regulation, Braehead win:

Team GAMES PLAYED POINTS REG WINS WINS
Cardiff 51 72 29 34
Sheffield 52 72 29 34
Braehead 51 71 32 34

Cardiff go above Sheffield on the tiebreaker here (it’ll go past wins, regulation wins, AND record between the two teams all the way down to better away record) which means that they only need to match Braehead’s result on the Sunday to win the title. Braehead need to get a better result against Fife than Cardiff do v Nottingham on Sunday night.

SCENARIO 2b: Cardiff win in regulation, Braehead lose in OT

Team GAMES PLAYED POINTS REG WINS WINS
Cardiff 51 72 29 34
Sheffield 52 72 29 34
Braehead 51 70 31 33

In this situation, anything other than a Cardiff loss in regulation against Nottingham AND a Braehead win will give the Devils the title.

SCENARIO 2c: Cardiff win in OT, Braehead win

SHEFFIELD BEAT NOTTINGHAM (OT) GAMES PLAYED POINTS REG WINS WINS
Sheffield 51 72 29 34
Cardiff 52 72 28 34
Braehead 51 71 31/32 34

This time round the scenario actually benefits Braehead the most. An OT for Cardiff and Braehead will mean that Sheffield stay above both on the tiebreaker. Assuming that doesn’t happen, the Devils have to get an equal or better result than that of the Clan on Sunday-the Clan, logically, then need a better result than the Devils on Sunday to win the title.

Another wrinkle here-in this situation the Clan only need an OT loss to leap into 2nd whatever the result of the title race-even if Cardiff take the title, to take the “other” CHL spot-which means that the Clan COULD potentially be in the position of winning the title on an OT loss in Fife.

That’s a little clearer than it was earlier this evening as far as the title goes, isn’t it? 🙂

Bring on the weekend.

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